CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (Mars, STEREO A, Lucy, OSIRIS-APEX, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-06-30T14:35:32Z
## Message ID: 20240630-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-06-29T03:36Z.

Estimated speed: ~885 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 28 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 64/-13 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001

2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-06-29T04:00Z.

Estimated speed: ~506 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 33 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 36/-27 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001

3: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-06-29T16:12Z.

Estimated speed: ~809 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 44 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): 26/-33 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect Mars, STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), and OSIRIS-APEX (glancing blow). The leading edge of CME with ID: 2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001 will reach Mars at 2024-07-03T02:53Z and the flank may give a glancing blow to OSIRIS-APEX at 2024-07-01T10:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The flank of CME with ID: 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001 may give a glancing blow to Lucy at 2024-07-05T00:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The combined leading edge of all three CMEs may impact STEREO A at 2024-07-02T06:41Z (plus minus 7 hours).

The simulation also indicates that the leading edge of CME with ID 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001 and the flank of CME with ID 2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001 may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the combined leading edge or flank of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-07-02T22:06Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 3-5 (below minor to minor).
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001, 2024-06-29T04:00:00-CME-001, 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240629_072500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

The CME event with ID 2024-06-29T03:36:00-CME-001 is associated with C2.3 flare with ID 2024-06-29T13:08:00-FLR-001 from Active Region 13719 (S18W60) which peaked at 2024-06-29T13:13Z.

The CME event with ID 2024-06-29T16:12:00-CME-001 was predicted to affect STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), Mars (glancing blow), and NASA missions near Earth based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20240630-AL-001).

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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